Taking on the real enemy

Shafqat Mahmood
October 16, 2009

Does the brazen attack on the army's General Headquarters (GHQ) show the terrorists' strength or weakness? However contradictory as it may sound, it demonstrates both. The strength is in the fact that disparate militant elements coming from different parts of the country have coalesced into a coordinated terror network. The weakness is that to make their presence felt, desperate acts with loss of precious assets, have to be undertaken.
Let us look at the strength first. Radical religious groups originating from the Punjab either had an anti-India/pro-Kashmir jihad agenda, in which they had some collaboration from the state. Or they were sectarian outfits targeting Shias, in particular, but also other Sunni groups.
Tribal area based militants were a product of the long Afghan conflict starting in the 80s. After the American invasion of Afghanistan, they became aligned with Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban. To find out in detail how this happened please read Imtiaz Gul's book, The Al Qaeda Connection.
Their objective initially was to provide support and safe haven to fleeing Al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban. As Gul points out, money played an important part in this. When the Pakistani state began to make life difficult for them, they took it on. Later, their objective morphed into controlling Pakistani territory and establishing a state within a state. This was visible in their Malakand outreach and deliberate infiltration into other parts of NWFP.
These dissimilar groups have now come together with the common agenda of fighting the Pakistani state and this has become the militancy's strength. This merger has been facilitated by their shared hatred of the United States and a warped perception of an ideal Islamic state. They seek to establish it in Pakistan.
The weakness of the terrorist network is reflected in the reckless nature of the GHQ attack. It was indeed audacious and achieved some early results until the Pakistan Army commandos ended it an operation. Many brave soldiers gave the ultimate sacrifice and no words can express the nation's gratitude to them.
But, from the militants' perspective, this attack cost them heavily. They sacrificed an important asset in the shape of the terrorist Aqeel, who has been captured. This raises the possibility of at least parts of their network being exposed.
They could not have been unaware of these pitfalls while planning the operation. It must have been obvious that attacking the GHQ is nothing short of a suicide mission with a low chance of success. The only explanation for this is desperation.
This stems from victory of the armed forces in Malakand that has dealt a deadly blow to the militants, both physically and to their aura of invincibility. The elimination of some top leaders like Baituallah Mehsud and other prominent Al Qaeda allies has further weakened them. The current wave of terror attacks and, particularly, the GHQ operation was a desperate attempt to project strength at a time when the noose is tightening around them.
This is where the forthcoming Waziristan operation becomes so critical. It will be tough given the terrain and the strength of the militants and, sadly, many brave soldiers will die for their country. But, it is the ultimate safe haven crammed with Al Qaeda, Afghan and local Taliban, Uzbeks and Chechens and many wanted terrorists from Punjab. This scorpions den has to be wiped clean.
It will require coordination with American/NATO forces in Afghanistan because unless these elements are interdicted from the other side, they will just vanish and regroup on Afghan territory. The Americans have been pushing for this operation and should do what it takes but will the current imbroglio over the Kerry-Lugar Bill have any effect? Unlikely, because the military to military cooperation is apparently good. While there has been a political reaction to the Pakistan Army's public stance against clauses of the Kerry-Lugar Bill, there has not been a word from the US military. Representative Berman who has taken a lead in this was clearly defending his own position because he is responsible for the folly of putting intemperate language in the bill.
This is also now being widely recognised in the United States. An important commentator in The Washington Post, David Ignatius, said that "the finger-wagging conditions in the bill illustrate a special form of American hubris. US politicians become so accustomed to lecturing others that they lose sight of how their words will be read in foreign capitals and how legislative boilerplate will play on foreign insecurities and anxieties."
Ignatius has aptly identified the kind of mindset that prevails in the American legislative branch. It would also be useful to understand that the parliament, known as Congress in the US, can often act like loose cannon. Its pronouncements, particularly of the lower house, can totally be at variance with the policy of the executive branch.
The various lobbyists that surround it have influence, particularly the Israeli lobby on Mideast issues. But to imagine that on every matter interest groups and particularly foreign representatives will be able to insert language of their choice in legislative acts displays total ignorance of the American system.
It is in this context that I find dark conspiracies attributed to Pakistan's Ambassador Hussain Haqqani so overblown. Haqqani has been a public figure for a long time and many people, including me, can have issues with his political choices and policy postures. But to attribute downright treachery indeed treason to him is uncalled for and entirely without substance.
This may not relate to the topic at hand but if one has to go looking for people who have harmed the country, there is no need to go further than Jamshed Dasti, MNA. This man, who is the chairman of the National Assembly committee on sports, severely damaged our cricket team's already controversial image by alleging match fixing.
Such people have no right to operate at the national level. He showed his true colours by hurling filthy abuses during a session of the national assembly. While I am no fan of Faisal Saleh Hayat, people like Dasti should be told to go back to the hole they have come out of.
What of the Kerry-Lugar Bill and how are we going to move forward? As I said last week, there is little chance of the bill's language being changed. A sop to the Pakistani sensibilities is coming in the shape of a statement that will swear everlasting commitment to Pakistan. This fig leaf will be gratefully accepted by the government. The language of the bill will not change.
The reality is that Pakistan and the United States both need each other. Some would argue that the US needs Pakistan more than we need it but this is nothing more than bravado. Pakistan has severe economic and security problems and US help is important.
This can change if the society transforms itself and particularly the well off are willing to reduce their lifestyle. But, that is unlikely to happen. In the meantime, the equation is simple. We need the money.
Courtesy: The News